Current versions of key charts from Ahead of the Curve including commentary
Links to data used in Ahead of the Curve
Ahead of the Curve
URLs for current data:
Figure 4-1: Economic growth, recessions, and the stock market: A REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY
Figure 7-3: real consumer spending (PCE) and industrial production: The volatile effects of the inventory cycle
Figure 7-5: Swings in industrial production drive changes in real capital spending
Figure 7-7: Swings in real consumer spending (PCE) drive changes in real capital spending
Figure 8-4: Bear markets begin when growth in real consumer spending (PCE) peaks and begins to slow
Figure 9-3: Sentiment surveys: Coincident, not leading, indicators
Figure 10-4: How inflation affects growth in real average hourly earnings
Figure 10-7: Real hourly earnings: Best leading indicator of real consumer spending (PCE) downturns
Figure 10-9: Growth in employment and borrowing “leverages up” real hourly earnings
Figure 10-10: real hourly earnings: A useful leading indicator of stock market declines
Supplemental Figure: Saving Rate
Figure 11-3: Employment’s lagging relationship to consumer spending (PCE)
Figure 11-6: The unemployment rate’s lagging relationship to real consumer spending (PCE)
Figure 11-8: The unemployment trap: Unemployment and the bear market
Figure 11-11: Combined year-over-year increases in employment and real wage growth approximate growth in real consumer spending (PCE)
Figure 12-2: The discount or fed funds rate as a leading indicator of real consumer spending (PCE)
Figure 12-4: Inflation drives interest rates
Figure 13-2: Rising discount/fed funds rates: A harbinger of bear markets
Figure 13-3: Long-term interest-rate changes and the stock market
Figure 14-2: Increases in total domestic debt drive the prime rate
Figure 14-3: Increases in total domestic debt drive the 10-year Treasury yield
